The world economy is enjoying a vigorous, but divergent, recovery. This is what the World Bank’s June Global Economic Prospects is telling us. The main reason for the recovery is the successes of the vaccine programme. The main reason for the divergence is the limitations of the vaccine programme. Some parts of the world economy may become too hot, while others are too cold. So, stay alert.
This time is indeed different: the recession was caused not by the need to curb excessive inflation, nor by an oil shock, nor by a financial crisis, but by a virus. Now, with the success of the vaccine programmes, the world is enjoying among the strongest recoveries from recession since 1945.
