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The US stock market is on a roll. The S&P 500 index closed 2024 up 23 per cent, marking its second consecutive annual gain above 20 per cent. This year, the average forecast on Wall Street is for around a further 10 per cent rise. Households are bullish too: the share of Americans expecting equity prices to rise is at its highest in decades.
美国股市持续上涨。标普500指数2024年收盘上涨23%，连续第二年涨幅超过20%。今年，华尔街的平均预测是进一步上涨约10%。家庭也看涨：预计股价上涨的美国人比例达到几十年来的最高水平。
The exuberance is jarring for two reasons. First, a majority of economists expect president-elect Donald Trump’s “Maganomics” agenda to have a negative impact on America’s economic growth, according to the Financial Times’ annual poll. Second, US asset valuations are already pretty lofty. Excluding the peak of the dotcom bubble, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios for stocks are near their most expensive in over a century. Optimism over artificial intelligence is largely behind the surge. So can US equities really sustain their bull run in 2025?
这种繁荣令人不安有两个原因。首先，根据英国《金融时报》的年度民意调查，大多数经济学家预计当选总统唐纳德•特朗普的“Maga经济学”议程将对美国经济增长产生负面影响。其次，美国的资产估值已经相当高了。排除互联网泡沫的高峰期，经周期性调整的股票市盈率接近一个多世纪以来的最高水平。对人工智能的乐观情绪在很大程度上推动了股市的飙升。那么，美国股市是否真能在2025年持续走强？
It is possible. For starters, though economic growth and stock market performance are related, they do not always neatly align. Vibes matter. American equities jumped following the November election. That partly reflects a belief that a business-friendly Trump administration would not put the market rally at risk. Next, even if economic activity weakens this year, investors still want exposure to AI, given faith in its transformative potential. If both the Trump and tech optimism pan out, then stocks could keep rising.
这是可能的。首先，尽管经济增长和股市表现相关，但它们并不总是完全一致。市场情绪很重要。美国股市在11月选举后大幅上涨，这部分反映了人们相信一个对商业友好的特朗普政府不会让市场上涨面临风险。其次，即使今年经济活动减弱，投资者仍然希望投资于人工智能领域，因为他们相信其变革潜力。如果特朗普和科技乐观情绪都实现，那么股市可能会继续上涨。
Economists’ forecasts also appear to be placing more emphasis on the cost-raising and inflationary effects of Trump’s tariff agenda, relative to his plan to cut red-tape and taxes, which would support companies’ margins. If, however, the president-elect’s zeal for import levies turns out to be more rhetoric than reality, then the economic backdrop could support financial markets. The US Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates further and faster (albeit depending on how much fiscal policy is loosened).
经济学家的预测似乎也更加强调特朗普关税议程的成本上升和通胀影响，而不是他削减繁文缛节和税收的计划，这将支持公司的利润率。然而，如果当选总统对进口关税的热情更多地是夸夸其谈而非现实，那么经济背景有望支持金融市场。美联储可能能够进一步更快地降息（尽管这取决于财政政策的放松程度）。
But how can investors have any conviction about what Trump will actually do? On Monday, markets see-sawed after the president-elect rebutted an earlier news report that claimed he would water down his tariff plans. He has a tendency to shoot from the hip on major policy decisions, via social media. His plans for financial market deregulation could also foment stability risks. Cryptocurrencies have surged since the election. The booming private capital market — which has concerned regulators for its opacity — is hoping to lobby the incoming administration for more widespread investor adoption.
但投资者如何能对特朗普的实际行动有任何信心呢？周一，在当选总统反驳了早些时候声称其将淡化关税计划的新闻报道后，市场出现了摇摆。他倾向于通过社交媒体对重大政策决定侃侃而谈。他放松金融市场管制的计划也可能引发稳定风险。自大选以来，加密货币飙升。蓬勃发展的私人资本市场因其不透明性而受到监管机构的关注，该市场希望游说即将上任的政府让投资者更广泛地采用加密货币。
Signs of fragility are also appearing across US markets. Equity and corporate bond valuations are stretched, and investors are taking on more risk. Last year, Wall Street’s appetite for returns sparked the largest frenzy for complex debt products since the run-up to the financial crisis. The concentration of investment in high-returning AI-linked equities is also a concern. The weight of the S&P 500’s top 10 stocks is at a historic high. AI earnings may continue to be strong but just one weaker-than-expected quarterly tech result could still cause an outsized upset.
美国市场也出现了脆弱的迹象。股票和公司债券的估值过高，投资者承担了更多的风险。去年，华尔街对回报的渴望引发了自金融危机前夕以来最大规模的复杂债务产品投资热潮。对高回报人工智能相关股票的集中投资也是令人担忧的问题。标普500中排名前十的股票权重达到了历史新高。尽管人工智能的收益可能会继续强劲，但只要科技行业有一个季度的业绩低于预期，就仍可能引发巨大的市场动荡。
In a speech on Monday, Fed governor Lisa Cook warned that financial markets may be “priced to perfection and, therefore, susceptible to large declines, which could result from bad economic news or a change in investor sentiment”. The release of non-farm payrolls data on Friday will be the first big test for traders this year. It will not be the last. The combination of Trump’s capriciousness and frothy-looking markets is a recipe for volatility. Even investors with a determinedly optimistic outlook should prepare for a bumpy ride.
美联储理事丽莎•库克(Lisa Cook)在周一的一次讲话中警告说，金融市场可能“定价过于完美，因此容易因不利的经济消息或投资者情绪的变化而出现大幅下跌”。周五公布的非农就业数据将是今年对交易者的第一个重大考验。这不会是最后一次。特朗普的反复无常与看似存在泡沫的市场结合在一起，容易引发波动。即使是对前景抱有坚定乐观态度的投资者，也要做好一路颠簸的准备。