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FT商学院

Kwarteng U-turn: volatile markets are hungry for bad news
克沃滕的180度大反转:动荡的市场充满坏消息

UK chancellor’s volte-face will not restore the country’s fiscal credibility
英国财政大臣的180度大转弯,不会恢复英国的财政信誉。
Contrition can be disarming. But Kwasi Kwarteng’s U-turn on the abolition of a 45p tax rate for high earners will not restore the UK’s fiscal credibility. The measure accounted for under 5 per cent of the £45bn package of unfunded tax cuts in the “mini” Budget 10 days ago.
幡然悔悟、从善如流本可以赢得人心。但夸西•克沃滕(Kwasi Kwarteng)在取消高收入者45%税率问题上的180度大转弯,不足以恢复英国的财政信誉。在10天前公布的“迷你”预算(mini Budget)中,该措施在450亿英镑无资金支持的减税计划中所占比例不到5%。
Moreover, the reverse ferret has proved a damaging thesis about the UK chancellor and Prime Minister Liz Truss. It is this: they lack the judgment to intuit the mood of markets or their own party.
此外,巨大反转证明了关于英国财政大臣和首相利兹•特拉斯(Liz Truss)的一个破坏性论点。这就是:他们缺乏对市场或自己政党情绪的直觉判断。
Their original unforced error led to an extreme jump in gilt yields. The disarray is ominous. Markets are febrile. Modest bad news can trigger massive sell-offs, as US tech stocks have also shown.
他们最初的非被迫错误,导致了英国国债收益率的大幅飙升。这种混乱是不祥的。市场正在发烧。轻微的坏消息可能引发大规模抛售,美国科技股的情况也证明了这一点。
The gyrations of the UK bond market are exceptional. But signs of stress are widespread. In the US, the Move (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) index rose to its second-highest level since 2009 last Wednesday. This index, derived from options on Treasuries, captures bond market volatility, much like the Vix index does for stocks.
英国债券市场的波动异常剧烈。但压力的迹象普遍存在。在美国,美林期权波动率估算(Move)指数上周三升至2009年以来的第二高水平。该指数源自美国国债期权,能够反映债券市场的波动,与Vix指数反映股市的波动非常相似。
The UK has made itself vulnerable to a battering from bond vigilantes. Kwarteng put the UK’s reputation at risk by dispensing with forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, firing the Treasury’s top official and implausibly targeting 2.5 per cent growth.
英国已使自己容易受到债券“义务警员”的打击。克沃滕无视英国预算责任办公室(Office for Budget Responsibility)的预测,解雇了英国财政部的重要官员,并将经济增长目标定在令人难以置信的2.5%,这让英国的声誉面临风险。
But he is right to point out that the UK has a lower debt burden than most other G7 countries. Its peers are swallowing the same toxic cocktail of high inflation, slowing growth and tightening monetary policy. For many, the fight against inflation is handicapped by the surge in the dollar.
但他指出英国的债务负担低于大多数G7国家,这一点是正确的。其他国家也在吞下高通胀、增长放缓和货币政策收紧的鸩酒。对许多人来说,美元的飙升阻碍了对抗通胀的努力。
The war in Ukraine and tensions with China add to the uncertainties.
乌克兰的战争和与中国的紧张关系增加了不确定性。
This is treacherous territory for investors. But there are opportunities too. High volatility can help global macro hedge funds, which try to anticipate moves across interest rates, currencies, equities and commodities. The HFRI Macro index is up 9 per cent this year.
对投资者来说,这是一个危险的领域。但也有机会。高波动性有助于全球宏观对冲基金,它们试图预测利率、汇率、股票和大宗商品的走势。HFRI宏观指数(HFRI Macro index)今年上涨9%。
Good quality shares with low indebtedness and high dividend yields should prove resilient. Value stocks outperform growth equities in periods of high inflation and rising bond yields, according to a UBS analysis of data going back to 1975.
负债低、股息率高的优质股票应该具有弹性。瑞银(UBS)对1975年以来数据的分析显示,在高通胀和债券收益率上升时期,价值型股票的表现优于成长型股票。
The price of 30-year gilts is down nearly a third over the past year. The FTSE 100 has fallen by less than a tenth as much. That is not the normal pattern. As markets move further into uncharted territory, there will be more nasty surprises.
30年期英国国债的价格在过去一年下跌了近三分之一。富时100指数的跌幅不到英国的十分之一。这不是正常的模式。随着市场进一步进入未知领域,将出现更多令人不快的意外。
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