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As a rule, companies that urge investors to shrug off poor news, and focus instead on tomorrow’s prospects, are peddling poor advice. Yet ASML, Europe’s €350bn lone tech giant, is a rare exception.
一般来说，那些敦促投资者忽视不良消息，而转向关注未来前景的公司，通常都在推销不良的建议。然而，欧洲市值3500亿欧元的科技巨头阿斯麦(ASML)却是一个罕见的例外。
The Dutch chipmaking equipment provider has issued what could have been a concerning set of quarterly results. Sales of €5.3bn came in at the midpoint of company guidance. But China accounted for a massive 49 per cent of the machines it sold, as local chipmakers hoovered up older equipment not restricted by sanctions.
这家荷兰芯片制造设备供应商发布了可能引发关注的季度业绩。销售额达到53亿欧元，正好位于公司预期的中值。然而，中国市场对其设备的需求占了49%，这主要是因为中国的芯片制造商大量购入了不受制裁限制的旧设备。
Those hoping that the much-rumoured chip upcycle would show through in new orders were also disappointed. At €3.6bn, these were less than half those in the last, blockbuster, quarter of 2023. This was also lower than the €5bn that analysts had been expecting, says Simon Coles at Barclays. ASML is continuing to invest in capacity, hiring people, building clean rooms and even pre-building equipment that it has not yet sold.
那些期待传闻中的芯片升级周期在新订单中显现的人也感到失望。新订单总额为36亿欧元，不到2023年最后一个热销季度的一半。巴克莱的西蒙•科尔斯(Simon Coles)表示，这也低于分析师预期的50亿欧元。阿斯麦继续投资扩大产能，招聘人员，建设洁净室，甚至预制尚未销售的设备。
This makes for uncomfortable reading, especially given the group’s strong share price run. Indeed, its stock fell about 6 per cent on Wednesday.
这让人读起来感到不安，尤其是考虑到该集团股价的强劲上涨。实际上，其股票在周三下跌了约6%。
This choppy quarter should not obscure ASML’s unassailable market position. Orders for its machines — each of which costs hundreds of millions of dollars — are notoriously lumpy.
这个波动剧烈的季度并不能掩盖阿斯麦无可争议的市场地位。其机器的订单——每台价值数亿美元——是出了名的不稳定。
Demand is building. ASML’s clients, manufacturers such as TSMC and Samsung, are coming out of a slump, normalising inventories and increasing utilisation rates. Policy also provides a helpful push. Chipmakers are building new fabs, fuelled by funds from the US’s Chips Act. Samsung has been awarded $6.4bn and will build capacity in Texas. TSMC is setting up shop in Arizona. Both will need chipmaking equipment.
需求正在增长。阿斯麦的客户，如台积电(TSMC)和三星(Samsung)等制造商，正在走出低迷，调整库存并提高利用率。政策也提供了有力的推动。在美国芯片法案(Chips Act)的资金推动下，芯片制造商正在建设新的晶圆厂。三星已获得64亿美元的资助，并将在德州增设产能。台积电正在亚利桑那州设立新厂。这两家公司都将需要芯片制造设备。
Longer term, as the world gets caught up in the artificial intelligence frenzy, it is hard to think of a sector with stronger secular tailwinds than computing power. And, most meaningfully, ASML has the luxury of being the only supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography units, which use tiny wavelengths to print patterns for more powerful chips. Its latest iterations make more chips per hour, lowering production costs for customers. ASML can then not only increase sales but also prices and margins.
从长期来看，随着全球深陷人工智能热潮，很难想象有哪个行业比计算能力更具有强劲的长期趋势。最重要的是，阿斯麦享有极紫外(EUV)光刻设备的唯一供应商的优势，这种设备利用微小的波长来打印出更强大的芯片图案。其最新版本每小时能生产更多的芯片，从而降低了客户的生产成本。因此，阿斯麦不仅能提高销售额，还能提高价格和利润率。
All this underpins ASML’s continued conviction that it can make between €30bn and €40bn of sales in 2025, up from €27.5bn last year, with high gross margins of about 55 per cent. For that, it is well worth holding one’s nerve.
所有这些均为阿斯麦持续坚信其到2025年销售额能够达到300亿至400亿欧元（较上年的275亿欧元有所增长），且高毛利率约55%提供了坚实基础。因此，坚守信念确实非常值得。
